by Moving Gerakan on Sunday, November 14, 2010 at 3:15pm
A Peek Review at Gerakan’s Destiny
With the conclusion of the 33rd National Delegates Conference (NDC), there might be hope and confidence generated that Party Gerakan is on its way for a quick rebound. However, the NDC is not without other excitements that leave the journalists and political observers speculate whether the rebound is merely a smoke screen or the Chapter 2 pf Gerakan Denial Syndrome. (Sigh! The level of the Denial Syndrome I could have just been raised to another notch)
The conference started with the ex-Advisor openly calling for the President “not to over- stay his welcome” . He hinted that the president should resign if the delegates do not want him anymore. Who is he for the ex-advisor to speak in such a tone to the president of Gerakan elected by the party? If he is not happy with the performance of the latter, he should call for an EGM to oust him, instead of using public pressure and covert arm-twisting by his hatchet men in the CWC to force him out of office. The undemocratic practice of the ex-advisor do not allay public fear that he is installing his man to be another weak president and hence paving the way for his son to take over Gerakan in the near future.
The ex-advisor seems to be giving the green light to delegates to demand for the President’s early retirement, thus starting an ugly internal war in the Party. Don’t worry delegates. Contrary to common belief, the President will not use his newly learnt Praying Mantis as he knows that he will not be able to take on the ex-advisor heads on. He is expected to continue using his Tai Chi to bargain for the continuation of his ministerial post in exchange for an early retirement, hence passing on the party to the ex-advisor on a silver platter.
In whichever case Parti Gerakan is the loser.
Is Gerakan on the way to become a “feudal party” of some “sendirian berhad”? It is unfathomable to see Tun Lim Keng Yaik sitting on stage next to the president during the NDC when he is no longer the Party Advisor.
Maybe out of "kam cheng" or some other personal reasons, Tun is asked to be on the stage. But Gerakan must be clear to differentiate between 'personalising' the Party and 'respecting the office of the Office bearers' that is the CC. Just like the Cabinet, an ex-PM or ex-Minister cannot be invited to sit in the Cabinet. And it does not mean that we no longer respect them. Therefore, the Party must avoid the perception that Tun Lim is the 'persona' of Party Gerakan. It is no good for party image and it does not auger well for the future of Gerakan that an ex-President of 27 years still wields his power-axe around even after his retirement.
In his NDC speech, the president high-spiritedly declared that Gerakan is down but is not out, and that the party is not hopeless and irrelevant as critics put it. The President presented the data of 20000 new members to prove his point. Yes, congratulations to the President! While the breakdown of the figures is not available , we presume that the majority of these members come from Sabah (via the SAPP route) and Pahang. The President should be reminded that, for now, the Parti Gerakan’s base is still very much in Penang unless he has moved them over to Sabah without notifying the delegates. Nevertheless, Sabah has a different political landscape that requires different focus before Parti Gerakan can be a major force there. (Perhaps, the President can learn a few things from Pairin.)
For us, such a revelation is nothing but a symptom of the self-denial syndrome. After the 308 debacle, we remember vividly that the party leadership also used the fact that Gerakan did not have exodus of members to prove that Gerakan was still relevant. But what is the reality? The public has given up hope on Gerakan. It is pathetic that our leaders continue to choose sedatives to numb themselves and not to face the real reasons behind Gerakan’s perpetual decline.
Well, before the denial syndrome gets into us, let us present another perspective of reality in particular for the Parti Gerakan’s Penang members while the motivations are high after the NDC for the preparation towards GE13. Here are some of the facts to consider:
a) Gerakan Seats Allocation - Most of the state seats allocated to Gerakan have a breakdown of more than 50% of the Chinese but less than 80%. The Malays voters averaging about 30% of less. With the current scenario, the best swing will be about 30% of the total Chinese votes available, 65% of the Malay votes and 70% of Indian/others. With this scenario. Verdict: only Bukit Tengah has a 50% chance and with a slight jerk, we are gone.
b) Why only estimate 30% of Chinese Votes the max - We believe historically, on average, getting 50% of the Chinese votes in a particular constituency is a mission near impossible. The Chinese communities are mostly self sufficient and only requested for the followings – good governance, education opportunities, business opportunities, fairness and corruption free which they felt or perceived that this was lacking under the leadership of Party Gerakan especially towards the final year to the run-up to 308.
The sentiments on the ground are still very strong for the PR and they have made in-roads. The electorate fears that putting Gerakan back into power will mean being subservient to UMNO again. Party Gerakan has not given these groups of voters the REASONs to believe that if they are voted back into power, they are able to govern without playing second fiddle to UMNO.
c) Some election pundits in the party have said that Gerakan could win 3 seats in the coming GE13. With UMNO winning all 14 seats and MCA’s win of 3 seats plus MIC’s 1 seat, BN can form the simple majority government in Penang. This is possible if UMNO continues to be very strong and the rest of components parties have improved their image. These pundits hope that Gerakan can still be the Chief Minister in the government even with three seats. Well, will the 3 seats be good enough to be an independent Chief Minister? Gerakan will be an out and out puppet CM at the mercy of UMNO. He is going to be “a sitting duck” CM. When that happened Penang electorate would say their adieu to Gerakan. Is Penang state Chairman so “gian” to become CM that he is willing to sell his soul and destroy Gerakan forever?
d) Depending on UMNO to deliver? Referring to (a) above, Party Gerakan definitely depends strongly on UMNO to deliver the Malay votes for all the 13 states seats contested by Gerakan. The percentage is not small but more than 65% of the Malay votes needed for Gerakan candidates to win back their seats. This gives rise to a situation where Gerakan remains subservient to UMNO. After all it is UMNO which is the biggest contributor in making the Gerakan candidate a YB !!!
e) In the last GE 12, did Gerakan, MCA and MIC fail to deliver the votes to UMNO ? The answer is quite a certain YES. There are 2 seats (Batu Maung (N37) and Sungai Bakap) (N20)) which Malay voters are about 50% whereas the rest made up about 40%. The failure to deliver the bulk of this 40%, had caused UMNO lose the seats.
f) Will Party Gerakan be able to shed their image of subservience in time for GE13 ? The answer is a definite NO. Our earlier arguments have shown very clearly that Penang Gerakan’s election strategy is one of “UMNO Votes dependency” and therefore Gerakan will continually be beholden to UMNO. To add insults to injury, Penang Gerakan is too entrenched with the rule by “horse trading”. Only candidates behave at the behest of the top leadership will be “rewarded”. Therefore this culture of subservience will prevail.
g) Same old method or behavior never change Time and again we have advocated that Gerakan should not use the old methods to solve new problems. We can no longer run the party with “business-as-usual” mindset, as if 308 never happened. The electorate wants us to be independent and move away from UMNO, yet we choose to be close to UMNO to beg for their votes. It is this politics without backbones that people hate and reject. Why do we continue to opt for a strategy that brings only temporary gain, if any? This, we believe have very much to do with the mentality of our leadership.
We believe the above discussion might be disheartening to the delegates after they have listened to motivational speeches at the NDC, like the “Middle Path”, moving from Tai Chi to Praying Mantis, “down but not out”. They have also heard the delegates from the floor who stood their grounds against UMNO providing some glimmer of hope to Gerakan. But then in reality, their leaders depended on UMNO to make them into YB. Will they listen to all these delegates ?
Reality can be cruel and it hurts. The reset button has just been pushed and you are back to where you were right after the 308. Business is as usual. We hope actions will be carried out to match the eloquence of the presidential address.
gG - Gerakanlah Gerakan
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